Plethora of imponderables could mean seismic gyrations

The Gladiator knew it was going to be a really testing week, once the Spanish electorate unexpectedly booted José María Aznar's Popular Party in to touch in last Sunday's election. How would the rejection of the war effort in Iraq, highlighted by the heinous atrocities in Madrid, affect global stock markets? Was J-L-R Zapatero's Socialist Party going to hand the initiative to terrorists?

These were all imponderables that threatened to change sentiment, and could conceivably create price gyrations of seismic proportions. Jupiter be praised that the up-bet on 'QQQ', the basket stock from the Nasdaq 100, was on an upward surge when purchased the previous Friday at $35.28 in £25 per point. By Monday afternoon, markets were beginning to look decidedly weary, but the troop felt it worth holding on to the position until Tuesday morning. But it quickly became evident that investors lacked conviction. Turnover on the Street of Dreams was derisively scanty. Investors looked long of stock when sentiment had turned tail. So the main man cleared the decks by chopping the bet out at $35.55 and was more than happy to bag a paltry £675, rather than run into rocky uncharted waters.

The down-bets on mortgage-laden banks went satisfactorily to start with. It should not be forgotten that when 'shorting' US stocks, the trade must be made on an up-tick of the market. Markets were upbeat the previous Friday, then on Monday the banks started to weaken, though Wells Fargo was reluctant to give up the ghost. Wells Fargo was bought at $57.86 in £25 per point, but by Tuesday it was showing signs of irritating robustness - sold at $57.78.

But Fannie Mae, a relatively pure mortgage operator, bought at $75.96 in £15 per point, eased to $74.60 by Wednesday lunch time. The market was not to be trusted while in such an irrational frame of mind. Take the profit and run was the cry. Bounty to the tune of £2,240 on these two trades was gratefully tucked into the main man's toga.

This week could again be inconclusive. The troop feels it may well be metaphorically forced to feed on the crumbs from Lazarus's table. There is no economic data to interpret until Wednesday and few key companies report this week.

There seems to be very little possibility of official rates going up in the US until towards the end of the year. The Gladiator was tempted to buy some mutuals on the ground that remortgaging will rear its ugly head. That may be a little precipitous. So he decided to stick with up-bets on two perceived over-sold tech stocks: Cisco Systems at $23.12 and Applied Materials at $21.07. He swept them both up in £30 per point and threw in Goldman Sachs, which reports this week, bought at $103.35 in £10 per point.

· The Gladiator is the nom de plume of a professional spreadbetter