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The mortgage lender
"We see prices continuing to rise in 2002, but at a much more modest pace - around 5%, compared with 11% or so during 2001. After a small fall in house prices in October, the market rebounded in November, but the trend is still showing a slowdown in house price growth. This is a very different scenario from the last major recession in the early 1990s - the UK economy is expected to continue growing, and the housing market should be steady, too. There's no need for buyers to panic and worry unduly about falling prices."
Martin Ellis, chief economist, the Halifax
The country estate agent
"What happens this year depends on the global political situation: when people are glued to their TV screens, everything stops in the marketplace. So far, there's been perfectly good activity in the local marketplace in a certain price range (between £200,000 and £500,000). Deals are being done, though generally below the guide price, because vendors who need to move are aware they have to price realistically to get a sale. It's important to keep a sense of perspective on prices. Maybe 10% has come off, but they haven't dropped back to where they were a year ago."
Henry Holland Hibbert, Lane Fox estate agents
The upmarket agent
"There was a lot of apprehension about 2002 during September and October, but all our offices saw a notable pick up in activity in November. Although we're more upbeat than in the autumn, I don't expect dramatic rises in 2002. I think we'll see a consolidating market for the first half of the year, with modest growth from the summer and rises of 5%."
David Moulton, analyst at Knight Frank estate agents
The property investor
"Having sat on some cash during the autumn because we felt the market had overheated, we're starting to take up buying opportunities. It's now possible to buy at a discount, as developers are increasingly keen to generate cash flow. Owner-occupiers who need to sell are also having to be realistic about the prices they accept. The first three months of the year will be crucial. I see them as a good buying opportunity, both for investors like us and for owner-occupiers - not for great capital growth in the short term, but for cutting competitive deals if you have cash to spend. By the second half of the year, I hope things will have stabilised and we'll see steady growth of around 5%."
John German, Aberdeen property asset managers
The buying agent
"There's a great deal of inherited money still being ploughed into the UK housing market, interest rates are low and the economy is not in such bad shape. So I expect equal numbers of vendors and purchasers in 2002, with no major price moves overall. I think we'll see a period of quiet stability in the early part of the year; there won't be as high a volume of transactions, but they will be going on. It's widely predicted that the US economy will 'juice up' in the second quarter of the year, and that will boost a recovery here, so I think the first quarter of the year would be a good time to buy. But people are too wound up about getting a 'good bargain'. If they're buying cheap, then they've usually sold relatively cheaply, too, so ultimately it's only first-time buyers who really benefit from a slow market."
Jonathan Haward, of County Homesearch Company
The London estate agent
"In the latter part of 2001, there was a lot of property around, and not that many buyers, but I anticipate that many more will be looking in the new year, not least because of the low interest rates. People may well still be worried about the world situation and their own job security, but the fact remains that they have to live somewhere, and this is an exceptional time to buy. I've seen falls of 10%-15% this year, but I think the increased demand will mean prices start to recover - 2002 should be a very interesting time."
Peter Rollings, Foxtons estate agents
The developer
"Overall, the new-build market tends to achieve roughly the same level of sales in good years and bad. It accounts for about 10% of the total housing market, and the bulk of those sales are made between January and June. There was very little activity in the home counties during September and October, but buyers across the country really moved into action during November, and it's been our busiest period for 20 years. The one exception is the central London investment market, which has traditionally been dominated by US corporate buyers, and remains very quiet. Owner-occupiers are taking four or five viewings instead of one or two, to make up their minds, and that means we'll have to work harder, make sure sites are well presented and use our marketing skills properly next year."
Stephen Stone, Crest Nicholson
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