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What do you get if you employ 16,000 scientists in state of the art labs, spending your cash at the rate of £300,000 an hour, every hour? The answer, if you are lucky, is about five decent products a year.
If you don't think that sounds like many, you are not alone. The City long ago gave up the belief that the pharmaceutical industry's greatest invention was the perfect business model - juicy profit margins of 40%, patented medicines, and lots of them.
During the mid to late 1990s, the machine went wrong. The boffins didn't discover new drugs so regularly and the costs of doing business went through the roof. Genomics - the science of the 21st century - had to paid for. The regulators, after letting a few toxic horrors slip through, demanded better clinical proof. The generic producers hired lawyers who could successfully challenge patents in American courts.
The likes of Glaxo Wellcome and SmithKline Beecham decided the only solution was to merge, cut costs and somehow find a way of increasing their scientists' productivity.
Jean-Pierre Garnier, the man with the job of making GlaxoSmithKline work, yesterday claimed it was all worthwhile: productivity in the labs is rising and new Glaxo, with its scientists working in entrepreneurial units of 300, has 147 products in clinical trials.
Mr Garnier is perfectly entitled to have a little crow - the numbers are certainly heading in the right direction - but he should not overstate his case. The most reassuring news from yesterday's R&D presentation was the strength of the pipeline of follow-up drugs in areas where Glaxo is already strong, like asthma and HIV/Aids.
In other non-traditional areas, though, the jury really must remain out. There was much talk about 572016, a potential cancer treatment that sounds revolutionary. It may go on to be a blockbuster, but look at the facts. Novartis and Roche - both of whom have greater heritage in cancer drugs - are working on something similar.
Glaxo deserves applause for facing head-on the issue of declining productivity, but the truth is we may still be half a decade away from knowing whether it succeeded. But the signs - at last - look more promising.
Retail runnings
It doesn't get much better than this - said one City analyst about yesterday's service sector numbers. The first snapshot of the sector that makes up more than two thirds of the economy showed firms ratcheting up activity to its fastest pace in seven years. Yet the stronger data is unlikely to prompt a response from the Bank of England today. The monetary policy committee is likely to take its time and assess the impact of last month's decision to raise rates.
Christmas is always a difficult time for the Bank to assess trends. The signs this year are that retailers, who make up about a sixth of the services sector, aren't looking forward to the holiday season. Shoppers are playing chicken with retailers, staying away until prices come down. That will help maintain downward pressure on inflation.
Moreover, the MPC will find out next week what its new inflation target will be when the chancellor announces the switch to the standard European measure of inflation. Under the HIPC measure, inflation is currently 1.4% - well below the 2.7% increase in the retail prices index excluding mortgage interest payments. Mervyn King, the Bank's governor, has warned he and his colleagues face a challenging time explaining what the change means for monetary policy. All in all, caution is likely to be the Bank's watchword this month.
Ed's evolution
In an interview to be broadcast tonight, the chief economic adviser to the Treasury, Ed Balls, argues the eurozone's stability and growth pact is evolving into a more flexible, sensible system - moving towards the made-in-Britain model of policy formulation, in fact.
It would not do to push too far the extent to which Britain is influencing the economic debtate in the single currency zone. At some point, enthusiasts for the euro might start to argue that Britain can scarcely hold aloof from a system it will have done so much to shape.
That aside, it is to be hoped that Mr Balls is right in his analysis. The pact, designed to limit budget deficits among member states, may need all the flexibility it can get.
The dust has not yet settled on last week's row between France, Germany and the European commission, which in effect put the operation of the pact on hold for this year and next. Already a fresh problem is looming.
Official figures from Berlin yesterday show that, as expected, Germany will break the budget deficit rules again next year, but envisage the country returning to the ranks of the fiscally righteous in 2005, as promised.
The snag is that the assumption is based on the German economy growing by 2.25% in 2005. That is hardly life in the fast lane, but it is better than Germany has done for much of the last 10 years. If, on the other hand, growth fails to hit 2% ,the stability pact rules are again in danger of being breached.
The stability pact may need to develop an even stronger British accent.
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